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in misery!

Another week has passed. A week with a new negative peak of the crisis. The S & P500 closed at 735.09 points, its lowest level in 12 years. Recent rumors put pressure on the courses, according to Citigroup also be nationalized needed. The bank stocks plummeted again a massively. As it goes, nobody knows rightly so. Some experts speak of a further 20% within a few weeks, others explain 20% of their price target.

The graph that is displayed on the right shows the plight of the banks wonderful. It shows the market capitalization (market cap) on the 10 largest banks, on the one hand, 31 October 2007, on the other hand by 2/19/2009. The market capitalization has fallen until now by more than 75 percent. But other companies in various sectors due to the financial crisis posted massive losses in market capitalization. The crisis is expensive!

This chart and many other interesting, Similar diagrams can be found at: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com .

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Syngenta Bear wedge!

Syngenta is purely technical chart in a very difficult situation. And while Syngenta is currently in a bear-wedge. This formation typically breaks downward. The potential price targets would be first time about the 200 francs, or one floor below the old course of Slow of 158 francs.

Even a breakout above would be theoretically possible. But for such an unusual upward breakout, the stock would take an enormous upward drive. Is the stock capable? Purely fundamental in it should be that. The company has 2008 record figures written, the view, however, decreased slightly. So it is definitely still with surprises expected in this title.

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OC Oerlikon on the ground!

What is going on with OC Oerlikon? Believe it or not, the title has lost 97 percent so far on the all-time high in early 2007. This is just 2 years ago. This is only very rarely.

But what comes next with the stock? Chart Technically there is not much to testify. The stock has never been on a stand so low is why one can find no support or opposition. Only the indicators tell us something about the possible later. MACD and RSI show positive divergence, for example. It's quite possible that stock at some point corrected. The profit potential is huge for a correction. But when the correction occurs, it can not be said simply. In theory, a further price collapse is possible.

fundamental Gibts sgaen not much. Last, there were rumors of a merger with Sulzer. This also has to wear beige to the rapid disintegration of the value. The book value should be significantly above the current price. A recovery seems sooner or later a must.

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breakout after bull trap! Short

After I invested since Thursday in the warrant USDHR, yesterday there was the decisive day, in relation to the Bear-wedge. The U.S. dollar strengthened on first massively, before he then crashed completely. This was clearly one of the best examples of a bull trap, which I had ever seen.

represents Following the outbreak is now the question of how to proceed. The way down is now paved in general. A very weak dollar in the next few days would not surprise me. A target price of ~ 1:08 seems realistic. But beware. The question which we could continue to employ is whether the story is with UBS and the banking secrecy also continues to impact negatively on the franc. Theoretically, that would be very possible. Therefore, I'll think again, how long will I keep my put warrant. Also, already a sell by tomorrow I'll probably have to consider.

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in USD!

in the chart of the currency pair USD / CHF is a very interesting situation has arisen. And although two Bear-wedges are created, which are immediately after the outbreak before the bottom. Defining a target price will be difficult. Also it is related to the development of the stock markets. I'm personally but from a quick Downer. This means that after a few days would achieve most of the downward movement should have got.

I have therefore managed to get a very short-term warrant, where I want to participate with the declining rate. From today, I think the Warrant USDHR. The very small residual term (March 09) will I think the bill is probably only a few days.

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The beginning of the end?

Even today the direction for the stock market was again clear. More accurately a bad day followed the worldwide stock market indexes. This, despite the neo-President, Barack Obama, the recovery plan signed and this step as "Beginning of the End" was the title. The S & P500

started already massively in the red and could compensate for the losses to the end never. Finally, the index stood at ~ 789 points, the solid support, which in the last crisis to the dot-com bubble and the war stories was the lowest. A pullback to the trendline (blue) should in the next few days are possible. But the trend is clear. The next stage is likely to lead to the old course of slow, then to 740 points. Although this stage would go a roundabout way, this goal is almost certain. Whether it still goes in the direction 650 will show up to given time bender. The greater will be the downward revision, the greater the chance that we might once again see a time rising prices.

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The U.S. dollar reached the Top

The U.S. dollar has a very surprising way can be exempted from the downhill end of the year and now even been risen dramatically. But how long can the dollar rise to?

pure technical chart seen the dollar should make again soon. The progress of the recovery is in my view a sign that it will come in the next few days to clear charges. A steep initial phase and then a more low continuation of the recovery. Even the '62-Fibo was first insurmountable. On the second attempt, the brand has yet to be taken. The previous high this recovery wave was precisely at the upper down trend line, which was confirmed. The maximum potential of the recovery still is not very large. Presumably, the high was seen. Other possibilities are the mark of 1.19 or ~ but again the trend line at ~ 1.18.

also has fundamental on the case has not changed. America is more and more debt and the weakening of its currency, the debt immediately reduced again. So it's only a matter of time, how long can the dollar hold compared to the Swiss franc on the 1's mark.

A crash is therefore quite possible, even more so than General Motors would probably get more help soon-billion to survive the situation. Target price of 1.10 or even under it are not unrealistic!

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evaluation survey

votes: 75

Top Answer: CHF

Comment: The Analysis of the survey has brought no surprises for me. 61 of 75 users are primarily invested in the Swiss franc. At least 22 respectively 23 of 75 pay the USD and the EUR confidence. This is also the only thing that surprised me a little. I would have guessed prior to the survey that covered more votes on the dollar, but less on the euro.


New Poll: The new poll is now online. What is the lowest level of the SMI because of the financial crisis? Vote along with us!

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Win the mystery? All

Exactly one week ago today I reported in my market comment by Blogger Reinhardt. To date, he had predicted a few crashes to the day. Even then, he reported as of today, 10 February 2009, the beginning of the next wave crash. How right he was, the American indexes all lost around 5 percent. The banks got off again very hard. So lost, Bank of America almost 20 percent. JP Morgan Chase with 10% and Goldman Sachs (8%) were mild in comparison of it yet.

In Switzerland, the focus today at a bank. More accurately at UBS. These new facts were known. The loss for the year 2oo8 was finally with 19.7 billion Swiss francs, slightly less than expected. A very positive point for UBS was the message that instead of the planned 60 billion, only 39.1 billion francs (in the form of bad credit papers) in the SPV to be transmitted.

How are you now on? According to Reinhardt, the Crash, as already mentioned above, on my way. But I also think a bounce possible, in which ausschliesselich dominate in the coming days, only the color green would. A triple-top in the region around 875 should be possible. However, is it possible that the crash shaft actually back on the road.

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schedule

The S & P500, as expected, has taken the detour. Now he is on the way up. But how far the road goes to?

The first turning point could be the 880 points. This is the mark at which the index returns for the last time on the way up was. Why this brand is the fact that the PCR has arrived at very bullish 0.71. Since this indicator is a counter-indicator, however, is likely to speculate at him with falling prices.

Another possible turning point was the almost magical "resistance barrier" to the 920 points. If this region reached that mark would probably be overcome hardly sustainable. There simply is lacking in power, especially since this brand is not a few times could be overcome. This region is also a more down-trend line.

I will the markets in the coming days exactly . Watch According to the course I will go short, sooner or later.

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The oil in the triangle

The oil has been able to consolidate in recent weeks on a very low level. After the outbreak of the Pitchfork is only 3 days declined rapidly up before the strength of the intraday movements gave way rapidly. The target price range 40-20 is thus achieved. A recovery would now be possible in principle.

arose from the situation now is a triangle, which stands just before the outbreak. In which direction is difficult to predict. Basically, we can assume that the prices of Crude Oil in approximately parallel to the rates on the stock exchanges run. From this perspective, I would consider a breakout down the more likely possibility. If you look at, but only the chart, a breakout would be up at least as well possible, if not even more possible.

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Now comes the next diver?

The markets have again significantly weaker. Yesterday and today, however, the breakthrough could be prevented down. Now go further up or we crash immediately?

The fundamentals are not definitely gotten better. On the contrary. Almost every day we hear bad news. Nevertheless, for now I tend rather to a re-test the 900-point mark. Then should Puts you calm now, at the latest at 920 points, is closing because there is a massive resistance region. The goal for the next crash is difficult to define. Only the 740 would justify it, there is the current depth of November. Among them there are no more real support.

support for the adoption of the early crashes and I receive from the following page: http://www.enterprisecorruption.com/ This blogger named "Reinhard" has been to the day on forecasts for crashes in this financial crisis. The next crash he sees in 7 days. Whether it be this time right?